NHL 10-game Report Card
Sunday, November 2nd, 2008Mick Kern appears courtesy of Live From Wayne Gretzky’s
Attention Class, it’s time for your first Report Card of the new season. Please make sure your parents sign it, and return it to me.
As of Sunday morning, November 2nd, the following things can be gleaned from a quick perusal of the NHL standings.
- the Maple Leafs are in the final playoff position in the East
- despite their subpar start, the Ducks are afloat in the West, sitting in 7th spot
- no-one could have predicted the Marty Meltdown, the Turco Torpedo, which has helped keep the Stars in 12th spot in the West
- two of the trendy picks, Washington and Philadelphia, have not been lighting it up early
- those wacky dudes down in Tampa Bay haven’t done anything wacky yet, or so they say
Yes, we’re only roughly at the 10-game mark (the Coyotes have played only nine, the Rangers fourteen), but it’s enough time to take a snapshot of events.
Who knew that Alexander Ovechkin would have to miss some games? Who knew Sidney Crosby would get off to a slow start? Who knew the Leafs could skate like that? Who knew Mike Smith could stop that many pucks? Who knew Biron and Turco couldn’t. Who knew Martin Brodeur would be injured?
No matter how arrogant most hockey prognosticators are, no matter how much they trot out their overblown credentials and try to dazzle you with their sliderules and complex puck formulae, this is why teams play the games in the first place.
It’s a rare season where events unfold pretty much like most people expected them to. Most people have the Red Wings repeating as Cup champs, even though that trick hasn’t been turned in over a decade. But that’s a pretty safe pick; year-after-year, most folk think the magic that the Cup champ spun that past spring will continue. It rarely does.
Then again, that’s why they play 82 regular-season games. A long season for a lot of people, particularily when it’s followed by two months of the grind knows as the Stanley Cup Playoffs, which usually serves to turn off most hockey fans, as the weather gets warmer and thoughts turn to, well, other things…unless your team is in the Final.
Regardless, the 82 games is a good way to make sure that no one-month wonder qualifies for the playoffs. Yes, there are a number of examples of teams that manage to squeeze their way into the post-season, and then go on an inexplicable run to the Final, but the stark reality is sobering. Those Cinderella teams very, very rarely ever go on and win it all, right 2005-06 Edmonton?
After the 10-game mark of this current NHL season, one can’t get too excited, or depressed, glancing at the standings. Sure, a game won today counts for the same two points as a game in March or early April, but the reality is, really good starts help ease your way into the playoffs, but they’re no help once the Cup tournament begins, right 2007-08 Ottawa?
Are the Maple Leafs now a legitimate playoff team? They have a top-notch goaltender, a proven coach, a bunch of hungry players, and that wildcard in the name of Sundin. They’ve lost games they shouldn’t have lost (to Anaheim and Tampa Bay), yet they took games they probably should have lost (New Jersey) and roared back to win games they were completely, absolutely, without doubt, out of (Rangers).
That lack-of-consistency is probably not the mark of a playoff team, but it does indicate they have the talent to compete, and have to be taken seriously by other clubs. What will be interesting now is to watch how management massages this unexpected (unwelcome?) early success. Head coach Ron Wilson might find the locals expecting a continuation of this heady start, and his patented line that winning is not a concern right now might not play big. Then again, he could always just put Curtis Joseph in net.
At the other end of things, expected bottom-feeders such as Florida, Atlanta, the Islanders, Columbus, Phoenix, and Los Angeles are doing exactly that, eating dinner off the ocean floor. One of these clubs could get hot and make a charge, but most of these teams are most likely already chanting, “Wait ‘Till Next Year”, which makes it hard to sell tickets, unless you bundle them up with a couple of hotdogs, soft drinks and a program thrown in.
Thomas Vanek is showing why the Sabres put out all that cash to keep him. Carey Price can look brilliant, and then let in a floater like in their Saturday night game against the Islanders. Malkin is a superstar, go figure. So, it appears, is Semin. And both hot starts help make up for somewhat “slow” starts by Crosby and Ovechkin.
Tim Thomas continues to be the little engine that could, while Mikka Kiprusoff appears to be back. So, of course, I took Marty Turco in the NHL Home Ice pool. But it’s early.
And that’s the thing. It is still early. Mike Modano told us that the Dallas Stars like to break down the season into five-game segments. So far, two segments down, fourteen to go. We should have a better idea of how things might proceed two segments from now.
Or not. Which is why pre-season predictions are so, so…useless. Fun, sure, but c’mon, what insights do they really offer? A chance for some ego-challenged hockey prognosticator to roll the dice and maybe, just maybe, get it right for once?
What about injuries, illness, family situations, other outside distractions, team chemistry, trades, demotions, and the ever-overblown trade deadline? Most of those variables cannot be properly factored in when predictions are made.
Which is why, when pressed, I picked Dallas to win the Cup. Did Marty not get that email?
- Mick Kern
Mick Kern appears courtesy of Live From Wayne Gretzky’s
