Mick Kern appears courtesy of Live From Wayne Gretzky’s

I hate predictions.

If I really knew what was going to happen, do you think I’d be sitting here in uptown Toronto, at 4:30 on an overcast Tuesday afternoon, sharing them with you?  No, I’d be on some far-off tropical island, sharing them with gorgeous women, who only want to be with me because of all my money, which I made by charging you money to access my predictions website.

Dare to dream, or more accurately back here on Planet Earth, dare to predict.

Before the 2008-09 NHL regular season got underway, we were asked to name which two teams we thought were going to be in the Stanley Cup Final eight months later.  I decided to throw caution to the wind, and put all my eggs into the Cleveland Barons’ basket.  Heck, why not?  Considering I picked the Dallas Stars to get there, a vote for the long-dead Barons would have been as productive.

There are many things about sports predictions that don’t sit well with me.  I’d say they were things that bother me, but honestly, I can’t get that worked up over predictions.  Roll the dice, flip the coin, spin the wheel, hey, spin the bottle if you’re lucky enough, but it’s mostly luck-of-the-draw.

This all coming from a guy who “won” the NHL Home Ice prediction pool last playoffs, and tied with Mike Ross for first place the year before that.  Which only means one thing…I had luck on my side.  It’s not like the St. Louis Blues or NHL Central Scouting were suddenly ringing me up with employment offers, though, for-the-record, I’d listen.

The big thing that irks me about sports predictions are the type of people who will crow about the one or two big picks, usually upsets, they got right, while conveniently forgetting the 90% of picks they got wrong.  More than a couple of people around this building fit that description to a T.

The other thing that rubs me the wrong way about predicting sports (or politics, or the weather, or hog futures…name your poison) is when people hedge their bets.  Not that I blame them.  Again, who really knows what’s going to happen?  A number 8 team could upset a number 1 team this spring.  There is plenty of historical evidence of that occurring, just ask any Bruins’ fan over the age of 15.

Still, some wiseguy will, say, pick the Penguins in 7 over the Flyers, but when it’s the Flyers who triumph in 6 or 7, Mr. Wiseguy will fall back on his ready-made excuse,  “Well, I picked the Pens in 7, which means it could have gone either way, so I wasn’t that wrong”.

No, you were wrong.  You picked the Penguins.  Some team named the Flyers won, not the Flightless Birds.  And so on.

Another thing that cracks me up about hockey predictions is those folk who believe they have a clause in their predictions that allow them to opt out of their previous prediction after only one game.  That’s like changing your lottery ticket two numbers into the 12-number draw.  It can’t be done, yet I know many who have tried.

One other thing that kills me are universally recognized experts of the grand game of hockey, who are invited to appear on TV panel shows, and invariably pick the Conference champions to meet in the Stanley Cup Final.

Excuse me, are we paying this dude anything?  A monkey could have made that choice.  No wait, that little one that shows up on TSN with James Duthie has exhibited more hockey intelligence over the past few playoffs than some of the big name hockey experts.

C’mon, everyone knows there’s an upset or two lurking in the weeds of the first round.  Put your hockey thinking helmet on and explain to me and Joe Six-Pack why the Blues have a good shot at upending the Canucks, or why the Rangers will derail the Capitals.  No, the odds are not in favour of those teams, but this is called playoff predictions, not mathematical probabilities.

Anyone, even me dear old Mom, could pick the Bruins to face the Sharks in the Final, or the Caps to face the Red Wings.  Who dares to go out on the limb and pick, say, Carolina to meet Calgary, or Pittsburgh to face the Blackhawks…and that second pick is not all that improbable.  Yet most people stick to the tried-and-maybe-true, for fear of looking stoopid.

Yet who thought the Calgary Flames would fall only one game short of the 2004 Cup, or that the Habs would win the 2005 Stanley Cup, or that the Oilers would fall only one game short of the 2006 Cup…to the Hurricanes???

Hey, somebody must have picked John Druce for their playoff pool that one year.

As for me, did I mention that I hate predictions?  Nonetheless, I was asked to come up with mine for the first round, so here they be.  Warning, do not rely on these when betting the rent.

Boston over Montreal in 5 games (though I bleed bleu-blanc-et-rouge)
Washington over New York in 6 games (though there are many questions about Jose Theodore)
Carolina over New Jersey in 6 games (though I worship at the altar of Martin Brodeur)
Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 7 games (though this one appears to be a toss-up)
San Jose over Anaheim 6 (though the Ducks are a strong number 8 seed)
Detroit over Columbus in 5 (though is Chris Osgood once again ready-for-prime time?)
St. Louis over Vancouver in 7 (the Blues are my 2nd favourite team, and have been since I was a kid, so I’m picking with my heart here…besides, there’s an upset somewhere every year, why not here?)
Chicago over Calgary in 7 (Flames are stumbling going in, though this is a toss-up)

Okay, so for each of the eight series, I offered a ready-made excuse for why my pick may not turn out correct.  Talk about hedging your bets.

I hate guys like me.

- Mick Kern

Mick Kern appears courtesy of Live From Wayne Gretzky’s