Comments on: Declining The Penalty Shot http://www.gretzky.com/blog/2009/01/declining-the-penalty-shot/ Fri, 11 Feb 2011 18:37:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Mike in Philly http://www.gretzky.com/blog/2009/01/declining-the-penalty-shot/comment-page-1/#comment-80328 Mike in Philly Sun, 23 Jan 2011 21:11:56 +0000 http://www.gretzky.com/blog/?p=394#comment-80328 There are two arguments to be made for the penalty shot over the power play: 1) The "non-play" one, relating to the many positive fan and media aspects of a penalty shot. 2) The "play" aspect, which is that a penalty shot has a higher percentage chance for success. Regarding point 1, I would agree with everything you said - and I know most fans would disagree with me here - but those points don't factor into my analysis at all. You could make the same arguments in favor of penalty shots to end the game - that's great theatre, too... but that method emphasizes super stars and goaltending strength, which indirectly penalizes an excellent, deep team such as the Flyers, not to mention making all-star defensemen meaningless. Regarding point 2, I don't have numbers in front of me but I believe the penalty shot average is around 30% compared to 20% on the power play But that 30% is the aggregate of all players. So if the third line winger on a team with a great power play gets pulled down, I would think the odds of his team scoring (not to mention the added benefit of wearing down the opposing team) on the power play would be higher than the odds on the winger's penalty shot. There are two arguments to be made for the penalty shot over the power play:

1) The “non-play” one, relating to the many positive fan and media aspects of a penalty shot.
2) The “play” aspect, which is that a penalty shot has a higher percentage chance for success.

Regarding point 1, I would agree with everything you said – and I know most fans would disagree with me here – but those points don’t factor into my analysis at all. You could make the same arguments in favor of penalty shots to end the game – that’s great theatre, too… but that method emphasizes super stars and goaltending strength, which indirectly penalizes an excellent, deep team such as the Flyers, not to mention making all-star defensemen meaningless.

Regarding point 2, I don’t have numbers in front of me but I believe the penalty shot average is around 30% compared to 20% on the power play But that 30% is the aggregate of all players. So if the third line winger on a team with a great power play gets pulled down, I would think the odds of his team scoring (not to mention the added benefit of wearing down the opposing team) on the power play would be higher than the odds on the winger’s penalty shot.

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